The race is heating up for the Republican nomination as the Iowa caucus gets ready kick things off tomorrow night. It’s been an incredible race so far with almost every candidate having their moment as the front runner.
The Story so Far
Romney started out ahead having finished second in 2008. Michelle Bachmann appeared to be the the first major challenger as she won the straw poll in Iowa but she has now fallen off and is polling less than 10% in Iowa and 6% nationally. Rick Perry surged in September to 32% and a 12 point lead only to fall way back after a series of gaffes (now at 6%).
Next was the turn of Herman Cain at one point with a 2 point national lead Cain quickly fell away after this clip below and his fall was so bad he was forced to pull out of the race.
Newt Gingrich was next to surge above Romney after doing well in a series of debates. He also held a 12 point lead nationally at one point but this was quickly destroyed by a series of devastating revelations and negative ads. Only a few weeks ago he was 14 points ahead in Iowa but is now in 4th or 5th position.
Ron Paul has surged in the polls in the last few weeks up to Christmas. Paul practically has the internet locked down in universal support of him. He was leading in the polls in Iowa but has fallen back in the last few days although he remains level with Romney. And finally most recently Rick Santorum has come from nowhere at the very end and is threatening to win.
Mitt Romney, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum are now all neck and neck in the Iowa polls. No one really knows who’s going to win.
Candidate Run Down
Mitt Romney – Iowa average 22.8%
Mitt Romney has been the steadiest candidate polling consistently in the 20-25% range. Some would say he’s the man to beat. But Romney is disliked by large elements of the Republican party. Romney is seen as a liberal conservative. He’s been widely criticised by Social conservatives for ‘flip flopping’ on issues such as abortion. Romney has no support from the tea party. The surges by the other candidates shows the parties efforts to find an alternative candidate but so far Romney has managed to knock them all back. A strength and weakness of Romney is his history of business and Wall Street. He may be seen as a candidate who understands jobs and the economy or he may been seen as the millionaire that’s part of the problem.
Romney’s greatest strength at the moment is his electability. A lot of Republicans may not love him but they see him as there best shot at beating Obama. That’s what’s holding the Romney campaign together.
Ron Paul – Iowa average 21.5%
Ron Paul the anti-war libertarian is detested by the Republican establishment and many would say the mainstream media also. Paul is seen as a strict defender of the constitution and civil liberty. He is the only candidate to talk about issues such as the NDAA, the patriot act and SOPA. This combined with his anti-war stance has caused him to win huge support across the internet and with young people.
Paul is the candidate most against the status quo and the current establishment. He wants to cut a trillion dollars of government spending. Other policies include abolishing income tax and the federal reserve, removing the department of education and energy and pardoning non-violent drug users currently in federal prison. Paul is all about reducing spending and taxes and taking things back to the state level.
The mainstream media has called him unelectable largely because of his anti-war stance (Paul wants to bring all overseas troops home). The media vs Ron Paul
Rick Santorum – Iowa average 16.3%
Santorum has surged from nowhere in the last few days. He has been campaigning in Iowa for months with very few resources. He is very popular among evangelical Christians of which there are many in Iowa. The opposite to Paul on foreign policy Santorum has said he would bomb Iran to prevent it getting a nuclear weapon. http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_SANTORUM_IRAN?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT Santorum has been labelled as a social conservative (pro-life and against gay-marriage) and this may hurt him in future primaries if he doesn’t start talking about jobs and the economy. He has a plan to repeal regulations and remove tax for manufacturers. Santorum was also accused of being one of the most corrupt politicians in 2006 by citizens for responsibility and ethics in Washington
More candidates tomorrow