The Elusive Peace – An examination into the future of the Arab-Israeli conflict.

Part 2 – What are the internal divisions within Israel and how does this affect the chances of a future peace settlement with the Palestinians.

Israel

At first glance Israel appears a united country but when it comes to the question of the Palestinians, Israel is deeply divided. These divisions are exacerbated by Israel’s electoral system which is one of proportional representation. Israel has a wide range of different political parties. Many are very small special interest parties often campaigning on a single policy. The Israeli parliament, the Knesset is made up of 120 seats. To form a government a party needs to gain 61 seats. However because of the system of proportional representation no party ever forms a majority. In 2009 the largest party Kadima achieved only 22% of the vote gaining 28 seats. Miles short of the 61 needed for a majority.

Israeli governments tend to be a fragile coalition of various parties and as a result tend to be weak. Often the main body of a coalition may struggle to appease more radical elements. Unsurprisingly the average Israeli government has only lasted 25 months as inevitably elements within the coalition fall out with one another. A series of weak governments has made it difficult for an Israeli prime ministers to take decisive action regarding the Palestinian question.

An important point to consider in regard to the Palestinian question is that Israel is surprisingly only about 70% Jewish. There is a substantial and growing Arab minority making up around 20% of the population. There are two Israeli Arab political parties, United Arab List (4 seats) and Balad (3seats). Some commentators have speculated there is potential for internal conflict should this minority continue to grow. The strained situation is heightened by the fact that the Arab minority maintains very close ties with those in the occupied territories. There have already been incidents of rioting and unrest during the first intifada (1987-1993) and the second intifada (2000- ).

Many in Israel are also very much aware of this threat. This is illustrated by Yisrael Beiteinu, a secular nationalist party which uses the slogan, ‘no loyalty, no citizenship’ towards Israeli Arabs and is described by the Israeli media as ‘far right’. The party wants to create a new Palestinian state and then transfer areas of high Arab population in Israel to this new state in exchange for Jewish areas in the West Bank. Despite being a very new party founded in 1999, which initially only achieved 4 seats, it has now grown to be the third largest party in the Knesset gaining 15 seats in the 2009 general election. Israeli Arabs remain vehemently opposed to the idea. Israel has a much greater standard of living compared the occupied territories.

Likud (27 seats) the party of the current prime minister Netanyahu continue to oppose the creation of a Palestinian state and supports the building of more settlements within the West Bank. Shas (11seats) a religious party also tends to support this policy.

It has always been Likud’s policy to seek the whole land of Israel including in particular the areas of Judea and Samaria (the West Bank). They believe Israel has a right to own this land. This is why Israeli settlement building continues.

In the past their have been big internal divisions within the party and the country regarding the policy. This was most famously highlighted when Ariel Sharron (then prime minister and leader of Likud and previously known as the champion of the settlers) abandoned the policy and his party in 2005 forming a new centrist party (Kadima) in order to carry out a disengagement plan. Removing Israeli settlements from Palestinian areas in Gazza and some areas of the West Bank.

The withdrawal has been heavily criticised within Israel for many reasons and many view it as a failure given the Hamas rocket attacks from Gazza in 2008. Since the withdrawal Israeli public opinion has seen a large shift in support back towards the right. In the most recent elections Likud more than doubled its number of seats.

A combination of deep internal divisions and successive weak governments continue to contribute to the lack of progress regarding a settlement with the Palestinians. Although these are by no means the only or most important factors. In the next article we will examine the impact of internal Palestinian divisions on a future peace settlement.

by James Yardley