Tag Archives: Herman Cain

Republican Presidential Nomination – Iowa Caucus Race and the Story so Far

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The race is heating up for the Republican nomination as the Iowa caucus gets ready kick things off tomorrow night. It’s been an incredible race so far with almost every candidate having their moment as the front runner.

The Story so Far

Romney started out ahead having finished second in 2008. Michelle Bachmann appeared to be the the first major challenger as she won the straw poll in Iowa but she has now fallen off and is polling less than 10% in Iowa and 6% nationally. Rick Perry surged in September to 32% and a 12 point lead only to fall way back after a series of gaffes (now at 6%).

Next was the turn of Herman Cain at one point with a 2 point national lead Cain quickly fell away after this clip below and his fall was so bad he was forced to pull out of the race.

Newt Gingrich was next to surge above Romney after doing well in a series of debates. He also held a 12 point lead nationally at one point but this was quickly destroyed by a series of devastating revelations and negative ads. Only a few weeks ago he was 14 points ahead in Iowa but is now in 4th or 5th position.

Ron Paul has surged in the polls in the last few weeks up to Christmas. Paul practically has the internet locked down in universal support of him. He was leading in the polls in Iowa but has fallen back in the last few days although he remains level with Romney. And finally most recently Rick Santorum has come from nowhere at the very end and is threatening to win.

Source: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-1452.html

Mitt Romney, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum are now all neck and neck in the Iowa polls. No one really knows who’s going to win.

Candidate Run Down

Mitt Romney – Iowa average 22.8%

Mitt Romney has been the steadiest candidate polling consistently in the 20-25% range. Some would say he’s the man to beat. But Romney is disliked by large elements of the Republican party. Romney is seen as a liberal conservative. He’s been widely criticised by Social conservatives for ‘flip flopping’ on issues such as abortion. Romney has no support from the tea party. The surges by the other candidates shows the parties efforts to find an alternative candidate but so far Romney has managed to knock them all back. A strength and weakness of Romney is his history of business and Wall Street. He may be seen as a candidate who understands jobs and the economy or he may been seen as the millionaire that’s part of the problem.

Romney’s greatest strength at the moment is his electability. A lot of Republicans may not love him but they see him as there best shot at beating Obama. That’s what’s holding the Romney campaign together.

Ron Paul – Iowa average 21.5%

Ron Paul the anti-war libertarian is detested by the Republican establishment and many would say the mainstream media also. Paul is seen as a strict defender of the constitution and civil liberty. He is the only candidate to talk about issues such as the NDAA, the patriot act and SOPA. This combined with his anti-war stance has caused him to win huge support across the internet and with young people.

Paul is the candidate most against the status quo and the current establishment. He wants to cut a trillion dollars of government spending. Other policies include abolishing income tax and the federal reserve, removing the department of education and energy and pardoning non-violent drug users currently in federal prison. Paul is all about reducing spending and taxes and taking things back to the state level.

The mainstream media has called him unelectable largely because of his anti-war stance (Paul wants to bring all overseas troops home). The media vs Ron Paul

Rick Santorum – Iowa average 16.3%

Santorum has surged from nowhere in the last few days. He has been campaigning in Iowa for months with very few resources. He is very popular among evangelical Christians of which there are many in Iowa. The opposite to Paul on foreign policy Santorum has said he would bomb Iran to prevent it getting a nuclear weapon. http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_SANTORUM_IRAN?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT Santorum has been labelled as a social conservative (pro-life and against gay-marriage) and this may hurt him in future primaries if he doesn’t start talking about jobs and the economy. He has a plan to repeal regulations and remove tax for manufacturers. Santorum was also accused of being one of the most corrupt politicians in 2006 by citizens for responsibility and ethics in Washington

http://www.citizensforethics.org/index.php/press/entry/crew-releases-second-annual-most-corrupt-members-of-congress-report/

More candidates tomorrow

Republicans Close In On Obama

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By this time next summer, the Republican candidate to challenge President Obama will be known, but at this point the list of candidates and potential candidates for the nomination is still far from finalised. With the “will-he-or-she-run-questions” still being asked and answered, some of the names with the highest familiarity among the general public are still not even declared candidates.

Obviously, because of her run for Vice President with John McCain, almost nine in ten Americans (86%) are familiar with Sarah Palin and 75% of U.S. adults are familiar with Rudy Giuliani – both of whom are still undeclared, but possible candidates for the nomination. Majorities of Americans are familiar with declared candidates Newt Gingrich (72%), Mitt Romney (67%), and Ron Paul (52%) while half are familiar with Michele Bachmann (50%). All other potential candidates are at 30% or under in terms of familiarity.

These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 2,183 adults surveyed online between July 11 and 18.

Even among Republicans, many declared candidates do not have majorities familiar with them. Tim Pawlenty (33%), Rick Santorum (31%), Herman Cain (29%), and Jon Huntsman (15%) all have one-third of Republicans or less familiar with them.

With this in mind, it’s not surprising that among Republicans, over one-quarter (28%) say they are not at all sure who they would vote for if they were voting in the Republican primary. Rudy Giuliani (14%) and Mitt Romney (14%) rise to the top among Republicans followed by Sarah Palin (12%). All the other candidates presented are under 10% including Rick Perry (8%), Michele Bachmann (6%), and Ron Paul (5%). Among Independents, there is a three-way tie for first place between Rudy Giuliani (10%), Mitt Romney (10%) and Ron Paul (10%). But over two in five Independents (42%) say they are not at all sure who they would vote for in the Republican primary election.

Looking ahead to November, it seems there are three possible candidates who could give President Obama a difficult time. President Obama would lose his re-election if Rudy Giuliani (53% to 47%) or Mitt Romney (51% to 49%) was the Republican nominee. Each candidate would receive 50% of the vote if the President was running against Ron Paul. Right now, President Obama would win re-election against the 10 other candidates presented.

The Republican are yet to figure out who they are and begin the process of coalescing around one candidate. In the study of politics, there is always a debate regarding electability and this election may show that clearly. Should Republicans nominate a candidate who stands for certain values or policies important to a sub-section of the party, even though that candidate may not be electable in the general election? This is a question the Republican party needs to answer if they want to win next November.