James Yardley on The Elusive Peace – An examination into the future of the Arab-Israeli conflict. Part 2.

The Elusive Peace – An examination into the future of the Arab-Israeli conflict.

Part 2 – What are the internal divisions within Israel and how does this affect the chances of a future peace settlement with the Palestinians.

Israel

At first glance Israel appears a united country but when it comes to the question of the Palestinians, Israel is deeply divided. These divisions are exacerbated by Israel’s electoral system which is one of proportional representation. Israel has a wide range of different political parties. Many are very small special interest parties often campaigning on a single policy. The Israeli parliament, the Knesset is made up of 120 seats. To form a government a party needs to gain 61 seats. However because of the system of proportional representation no party ever forms a majority. In 2009 the largest party Kadima achieved only 22% of the vote gaining 28 seats. Miles short of the 61 needed for a majority.

Israeli governments tend to be a fragile coalition of various parties and as a result tend to be weak. Often the main body of a coalition may struggle to appease more radical elements. Unsurprisingly the average Israeli government has only lasted 25 months as inevitably elements within the coalition fall out with one another. A series of weak governments has made it difficult for an Israeli prime ministers to take decisive action regarding the Palestinian question.

An important point to consider in regard to the Palestinian question is that Israel is surprisingly only about 70% Jewish. There is a substantial and growing Arab minority making up around 20% of the population. There are two Israeli Arab political parties, United Arab List (4 seats) and Balad (3seats). Some commentators have speculated there is potential for internal conflict should this minority continue to grow. The strained situation is heightened by the fact that the Arab minority maintains very close ties with those in the occupied territories. There have already been incidents of rioting and unrest during the first intifada (1987-1993) and the second intifada (2000- ).

Many in Israel are also very much aware of this threat. This is illustrated by Yisrael Beiteinu, a secular nationalist party which uses the slogan, ‘no loyalty, no citizenship’ towards Israeli Arabs and is described by the Israeli media as ‘far right’. The party wants to create a new Palestinian state and then transfer areas of high Arab population in Israel to this new state in exchange for Jewish areas in the West Bank. Despite being a very new party founded in 1999, which initially only achieved 4 seats, it has now grown to be the third largest party in the Knesset gaining 15 seats in the 2009 general election. Israeli Arabs remain vehemently opposed to the idea. Israel has a much greater standard of living compared the occupied territories.

Likud (27 seats) the party of the current prime minister Netanyahu continue to oppose the creation of a Palestinian state and supports the building of more settlements within the West Bank. Shas (11seats) a religious party also tends to support this policy.

It has always been Likud’s policy to seek the whole land of Israel including in particular the areas of Judea and Samaria (the West Bank). They believe Israel has a right to own this land. This is why Israeli settlement building continues.

In the past their have been big internal divisions within the party and the country regarding the policy. This was most famously highlighted when Ariel Sharron (then prime minister and leader of Likud and previously known as the champion of the settlers) abandoned the policy and his party in 2005 forming a new centrist party (Kadima) in order to carry out a disengagement plan. Removing Israeli settlements from Palestinian areas in Gazza and some areas of the West Bank.

The withdrawal has been heavily criticised within Israel for many reasons and many view it as a failure given the Hamas rocket attacks from Gazza in 2008. Since the withdrawal Israeli public opinion has seen a large shift in support back towards the right. In the most recent elections Likud more than doubled its number of seats.

A combination of deep internal divisions and successive weak governments continue to contribute to the lack of progress regarding a settlement with the Palestinians. Although these are by no means the only or most important factors. In the next article we will examine the impact of internal Palestinian divisions on a future peace settlement.

by James Yardley

Our writer, Francesca, meets Israeli-Arab journalist Khaled Abu Toameh,

On Tuesday, I attended a talk by the noted Israeli-Arab journalist Khaled Abu Toameh, held in the flocked wallpaper glory of Westminster. What he said was interesting, relevant, and worthy of a larger audience than that which he attracted. He is not an impartial observer by any means – an Arab Muslim who lives in Jerusalem, and is West Bank correspondent for the Jerusalem Post – he is unashamedly pro-Palestinian. For him, though, being pro-Palestinian does not automatically mean vilification of Israel. As he put it, indelicately – if a man, woman or child in Gaza or the West Bank needs a heart transplant, the only country in the Middle East that will provide medical care is Israel. He excoriates the surrounding Arab countries for so completely abandoning their brothers in Palestine (Jordan is presently revoking citizenship for hundreds of Palestinian families who have been resident in Jordan since 1948 and before), and blames EU and American miscalculations in 2006 for the present situation.

If the US did not want Hamas in government, why did they encourage free and fair democratic elections in Gaza in 2006? Fatah went to Condoleezza Rice and said: “We are perceived as corrupt and spineless in Gaza. There’s a real possibility we might lose this”. The Americans ignored this, and when Hamas won by a clear majority, appeared to back-flip on its commitment to the democratic process – condemning the result and boycotting the new government of Gaza. The Palestinians in Gaza were all at once the victims of the most egregious hypocrisy – elect your own government, but if it’s not the one we want, we won’t be doing business with them. Meanwhile, Fatah groups in Gaza were coming under immense pressure from the new Hamas coalition, and fighting broke out on the streets of Gaza City between the rival factions. Hundreds of Fatah members fled Gaza, heading for the Egyptian border, which was promptly closed. Then they turned to Israel for rescue, and were allowed into southern Israel, only to be swiftly dumped in the West Bank.

Hamas swept to victory on an anti-Fatah, “time for change” platform – which Toameh thinks has now been largely dismissed in favour of hard-line Islamist policies and secretive international diplomacy (mainly with the Iranians and Syrians). The people suffer just the same, only now they are forced into Islamist contortions that many of them dislike and fear. There’s one good thing about Hamas though – they say pretty much the same thing in English as in Arabic. They stand for the destruction of Israel, entirely, and then, for a khalifa-style Arab kingdom, of the sort beloved by Muslim Brotherhood groups everywhere. Abu Toameh reminisces about a newspaper he picked up in Toronto, the headline of which proclaimed that Hamas was becoming more moderate, and about to recognise the state of Israel. Amazing! he thought – what have I missed at home? Upon his return, he headed straight to the house of a senior Hamas politician in Ramallah, and asked what had happened in his absence. The answer was nothing. The newspaper’s headline was the cause of much hilarity that week.

A two-state solution appears to have been implemented already –the Palestinians have two states: one in the West Bank and one in Gaza. Fatah is weak and divided, propped up by the desperate Americans and Europeans. Toameh is quite clear: Mahmoud Abbas calls for Israeli troops to be withdrawn from the West Bank on a daily basis; the moment this happens, he is likely to be dragged into Ramallah’s main square and hung. The bitterness of the Hamas/Fatah struggle is so acute, they appear to have forgotten about the Israelis – they now call each other pigs and dogs, and ignore the Jews. Unless significant pressure is put on both sides to compromise and come together there is no partner for peace for Israel, and more importantly, no chance of a true Palestinian homeland.

The last, and most depressing point: Toameh is constantly amazed by the level of anti-Israel vitriol he experiences in Britain and in Europe. He once telephoned British newspaper editors with a story about Fatah’s corruption and was asked, point blank, whether he was working for the ‘Jewish lobby’. What lobby? he exclaimed – and how much do they pay? Joking aside, he says he is saddened that being ‘pro-Palestinian’ in this country does not mean doing anything for the Palestinian people, it means hating Israel and settling comfortably into a morally righteous narrative that finds facts and reality confusing. When the situation on the ground is this complex, there can be no easy ‘right’ way to think about the conflict. He asked: what do boycotts do to help Palestinians? What do rallies do to help Palestinians? What do changing the lyrics to Christmas carols and passing anti-Israel motions at London universities do to help the Palestinians? Nothing. If you’re really interested in helping the Palestinian people, go to the West Bank and teach in schools, donate books about liberalism and freedom (if you’re a liberal and believe in freedom), donate money to organisations that encourage Arabs and Jews to sit down in the same room and realise their similarities and not their differences. And recognise that no Jew in Israel (who is not a lunatic) has no interest in re-occupying the West Bank or Gaza, and that no Jewish mother wants to send her son into street combat in Gaza.

The best we can hope for is a period of stability, coalition building on the Palestinian side, and improving the internal Palestinian economy. Netanyahu can freeze settlement building, or not, but it will make no difference to the quest for real peace in the region until the Palestinians resolve their rift and start a real campaign for statehood.

By Francesca Rose-Lewis.