Tag Archives: uk Politics

What To Bet On In 2013

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FANCY A FLUTTER IN 2013? LOOK NO FURTHER  

 

Now that we know the world did not end and we are post the potential apocalypse, the prospect of a new year brings a satisfying dollop of uncertainty and mystery surrounding life’s important matters. Who will judge next year’s X-Factor? Will there even be an X-Factor next year? What colour hat will the queen wear at Ascot? What colour hair will the new royal be blessed with?

 

While 2013 is somewhat lacking in the trouser department compared to the major sporting, political and cultural events we’ve been spoilt with recently, there’s still plenty of going-on’s to get your knickers in a twist.

 

Whether you fancy a flutter, or just have lots of space to fill in between Christmas and New Year,  Paddy Power has given Frost a guide to nearly everything and anything that may or may not happen in 2013.

 

 

ROYAL BABY

Forget 2012 and the Olympics, Ryder Cup and Jubilee, 2013 is all about Kate, Wills and the little‘en. If you can think of it, we’ll take bets on it.  Victoria is the current joint 5/1 favourite name having started life at a lofty 20/1. George leads the way for boys ahead of 50/1 Paddy.

 

Royal Baby Name5/1 Elizabeth

5/1 Victoria

8/1 George

9/1 Diana

 

 10/1 Mary

16/1 David

50/1 Paddy

500/1 Britney

 

 Hair colour 13/8 Brown

2/1 Blond

2/1 Black

6/1 Ginger

 

 Multiple birth 6/1 Twins

50/1 Triplets

1000/1 Quads or more

 

 

 

OSCARS

The Oscars race is well and truly on. For about five minutes it looked like ‘Argo’ had Best Picture all sewn up, cruising to the finish on strong reviews and decent box office. However, with a lap still to go, Affleck’s thriller looks to have peaked too soon and run out of puff with ‘Les Misérables’, ‘Lincoln’ and ‘Zero Dark Thirty’ now looking unbeatable for Best Motion Picture. Meanwhile staying on planet movie, Paddy Power has tipped the Hobbit to be the highest grossing movie of 2013.

 

Best Picture 5/4 Lincoln

2/1 Les Miserables

3/1 Zero Dark Thirty

9/2 Argo

14/1 Silver Linings Playbook

 

 Best Actress4/9 Jennifer Lawrence

9/4 Jessica Chastain

12/1 Emmanuelle Riva

20/1 Helen Mirren

40/1 Judi Dench

 Best Actor 2/7 Daniel Day Lewis

6/1 Denzel Washington

7/1 Hugh Jackman

40/1 Anthony Hopkins

100/1 Daniel Craig

 Best Director13/10 Steven Spielberg

15/8 Argo

5/2 Kathryn Bigelow

8/1 Tom Hooper

33/1 Peter Jackson

 Top grossing Movie of 20132/5       The Hobbit: The Desolation Of Smaug

9/4       Man Of Steel

12/1      Iron Man 3

16/1      Jack The Giant Slayer

20/1      The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

 

SOLAR FLARE

Maybe the Mayans were onto something after all. Forget a plague of cancers, super volcanoes or dark comets laying waste to everything on earth, 2013 could be the year in which we’re paralysed by a catastrophic solar flare causing blackouts and global chaos. The once-in-a-century disaster could see power grids crash, communication systems collapse, planes grounded, food supplies hit and the internet shut down.

 

1/25 UK national grid to blackout for a day or more

5/6 UK citizens to see a bright red haze

5/1 cost of solar flare damage to exceed $1 trillion

16/1 that we will see the biggest solar flare / geomagnetic storm on record

33/1 World debt to be wiped out

 

 

UK POLITICS & CURRENT AFFAIRS

Cameron’s coalition looks to be weakening by the day. With a general election to start thinking about and the Lib Dems languishing behind UKIP in the polls, Paddy Power’s 4/1 for the coalition to split in 2013 could prove a juicy punt.  Meanwhile money continues to trickle in on whether 2013 will be the year for Julian Assange to have a change of scenery, 11/8 says he’ll still be holed up at the Ecuadorian Embassy in 2014 and it’s 100/1 for him to escape via jetpack.

 

UK Politics – 201310/3 Any of the main three leaders to leave their post

4/1 Coalition to break up

4/1 General Election to be held

8/1 UK Referendum on EU Membership

 Negative growth in Q1 or Q22/7 Yes

9/4 No

 

 EU – 20139/4 Any country to leave the Euro

9/4 Any country to leave the EU

16/1 Euro to cease to be a currency

 Julian Assange – Method to leave Embassy11/8 UK police car

4/1 helicopter

6/1 Diplomatic bag

25/1 Hot air balloon

 

US POLITICS

US politics poses two big questions for 2013. Will the economy suffer negative growth? Help yourself to odds of 2/1 for yes and a safer 1/3 for no. And will Wintour descend upon the UK in 2013? She is just edging behind favourite Matthew Barzun in the betting for the next US Ambassador to the UK.

 

Fiscal CliffWill there be a quarter of negative growth in 2013?

2/1       Yes

1/3       No

 

 Next US Ambassador to UK10/11    Matthew Barzun

3/2       Anna Wintour

6/1       Marc Lasry

 

 2014 Mid Term Elections: Control of House of Representatives

2/5       Republican

7/4       Democrat

 

  Control of Senate

5/6       Republican

5/6       Democrat

 

 

COMMODITIES

Given world events in 2012 – continued tensions across the Middle East, financial crisis in the Eurozone and economic stagnation in the West – you can bet your bottom dollar the price of gold will continue to rise as investors seek a safe haven for their hard earned cash. How high is anyone’s guess. Paddy Power is offering 5/6 the price of gold will exceed $1750 by the end of 2013. Meanwhile we’re offering 9/2 for the price of gold to hit the magic mark of $2000 any time throughout the year.

 

Price of gold at year end 5/6 Under $1750

5/6 Over $1750

 Golden Year 9/2 Price of gold to hit $2000 any time in 2013 Price of oil at year end 4/5 Under $105

10/11 $105 or over (Brent Crude)

 

 

HATCHES, MATCHES & DISPATCHES

Whilst England fight the Aussies to retain the Ashes urn next summer, another national treasure may be lost to the convicts as Liz Hurley and Shane Warne head up the betting for our ‘First to get married’ market at evens.

 

First to get married1/1       Liz Hurley & Shane Warne

7/4       Kate Winslet & Ned Rocknroll

6/1       Eva Mendes & Ryan Gosling

8/1       Kristen Stewart & Robert Pattinson

10/1      Nicole Scherzinger & Lewis Hamilton

40/1      Taylor Swift & Harry Styles

 

 First to announce they are having a baby11/10    Zara Phillips & Mike Tindall

7/1       Kate Moss & Jamie Hince

7/1       Justin Timberlake & Jessica Biel

9/1       Angelina Jolie & Brad Pitt

10/1      Frank Lampard & Christine Bleakley

10/1      Holly Willoughby & Dan Baldwin

 

 First to split3/1       Kim Kardashian & Kanye West

4/1       Jennifer Aniston & Justin Theroux

5/1       Liz Hurley & Shane Warne

6/1       Kate Winslet & Ned Rocknroll

6/1       Kristen Stewart & Robert Pattinson

10/1      Justin Timberlake & Jessica Biel

 

UK WEATHER

The UK is renowned for its unpredictable weather, and 2013 is set to be no different. Strangely, next summer is as likely to be the wettest on record as it is the driest, with both available to back at 6/1. Those dreaming of soaking up the rays on their local beach rather than the water on their kitchen floor can take 8/1 that next summer will be the hottest on record.

 

8/1       Hottest on record in UK

6/1       Driest on record in UK

6/1       Wettest on record in UK

9/1       Coldest on record in UK

 

FHM SEXIEST WOMAN

Having inexplicably voted for Tulisa Contostavlos in 2012, the FHM readers are once again being entrusted to choose the magazine’s Sexist Woman for 2013. Mila Kunis is the strong favourite at 5/2 whilst you can get 16/1 that Helen Flanagan’s ball-chewing jungle experience earns her the crown.

 

5/2       Mila Kunis

8/1       Kate Upton

8/1       Jennifer Lawrence

14/1      Nicole Scherzinger

 

 

ON THE BOX

In the fickle world of TV, Simon Cowell may bring himself back into the UK X Factor fold in 2013. The race to be the next host of Strictly Come Dancing appears to be a two-way battle between Anton Du Beke at 13/8 and Vernon Kay at 15/8.

 

Next Host Of Strictly Come Dancing13/8      Anton Du Beke

15/8      Vernon Kay

9/2       John Barrowman

7/1       Graham Norton

16/1      Ben Shepherd

 

 Who will be on the 2013 X-Factor judges’ panel?1/3       Louis Walsh

2/5       Tulisa Contostavlos

2/5       Nicole Scherzinger

2/3       Gary Barlow

8/11     Simon Cowell

8/1       Cheryl Cole

 

The Next Sub-Prime Mortgage Crisis – We Have Learnt Nothing

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Some lessons are never learned and the boom and bust of the housing market is one of them. As we finish one housing crash we are already setting ourselves up for the next one. The seeds for the next sub-prime mortgage crisis have already been sown.

It stems from a desire by all parties to encourage people to buy their own homes and keep house prices going up. This results in an unsustainable boom followed by a sharp correction, all to the detriment of stability and economic growth.

Everyone from the building companies, estate agents, mortgage brokers, banks, government, owners and even buyers all want to see the market rise. Prior to the crash we had mortgages being offered for 120% of a home’s value. We now have offers encouraging people to buy houses which are equally or more dangerous.

The reality of the situation is that house buyers (particularly first time buyers) are not earning enough to get onto the housing ladder at the moment. There simply isn’t the demand.

Desperate to sell the houses on their books, Estate agents and builders have been offering shared equity solutions to first time buyers. The buyer only buys a percentage of the property (making it more affordable and much easier for them to get a mortgage). They then pay rent to the building company on the percentage they do not own. The scheme is all over housing websites. The government has been encouraging this scheme. In fact it is taking part in it.

On the face of it the scheme looks attractive. I admit even being interested in it myself initially. However once you understand the motives behind it and the reality of it we see how dangerous it can be.

You can see how it can become very expensive for someone who takes on this scheme. They are paying a mortgage, rent and service charges, not to mention maintaining 100% of a property they don’t fully own.

Many newspapers were initially very critical, until building companies started taking ads out in their papers advertising the scheme.

The service charges and rent often rocket and the homes are almost impossible to sell leaving owners completely trapped even when they need to move in an emergency. You can read some people’s nightmare experiences here.

Now, in what can only be described as utter madness, the UK government’s latest plan is to guarantee 95% mortgages. The ‘New Buy’ or mortgage indemnity scheme (MIG) only requires a 5% deposit from the buyer and if they default the government will pick up the tab along with the bank.

The government is trying to artificially inflate demand in the short term to boost the construction sector and push house prices up so everyone feels wealthier. This should also boost consumer spending and the economy as a whole. But this is a typically short term politically motivated view. The current government cares nothing for a future crisis which might occur in 10 years’ time. At some point the market will have to correct to an equilibrium level and the more we inflate prices artificially the bigger that crash will be. All the jobs created will be lost along with many more as well.

Nothing has been learnt from the recent crisis. With a government guarantee, banks and mortgage brokers will be flogging mortgages to anyone they can. This is exactly what happened before the recent crisis in America. Just look at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

When prices do start to fall owners will have no incentive to keep paying their mortgages as they move into negative equity. If house prices fall by 20% and you have only put down a 5% deposit what incentive do you have to keep paying the mortgage? As prices continue to fall this gets worse and turns into a negative cycle.

When the bubble does burst the ensuing crisis will be just like the recent one, except this time instead of the banks bearing the brunt of the loses, it will be the you and I the taxpayer.

Unfortunately we never learn from our mistakes. We must stop creating these damaging bubbles. We should just let the housing market correct itself naturally; unfortunately the government just can’t help itself. It is now just a matter of time before the next major sub-prime mortgage crisis. I just hope we can survive the fallout.

Alternative Election Night {TV Preview}

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It’s only a couple of days until Britain goes to the polls for the closest general election in a generation. On Thursday night, the BBC will begin an epic 20-hour broadcast from it’s huge studio set, ITV will have Alistair Stewart and Julie Etchingham surrounded by virtual reality graphics and Sky will have it’s presenters at constituencies across the country. Meanwhile, Channel Four will be taking an entirely different approach to election night.

Lauren Laverne, David Mitchell and Jimmy Carr will present a four-hour special, taking an entertaining and provocative look at the results as they come in. They’ll be joined by Charlie Brooker who’ll provide typically acerbic and hilarious comment, an array of guests including a bookmaker with the latest odds and a live studio audience. Viewers at home will also be able to join in on Twitter as night unfolds by sending tweets to @c4altelection and using the hashtag #C4altelection.

As well as the live broadcast from the studio, there’ll be pre-recorded segments using some of the channel’s most popular programmes. Throughout the night there’ll be segments from a special edition of Come Dine With Me featuring the unlikely combination of Edwina Currie, Brian Paddick, Derek Hatton and Rod Liddle. At ten o’clock, just after the exit polls come in, Charlie Brooker is joined by Robert Webb, Sharon Horgan and Peter Serafinowicz for a special edition of You Have Been Watching, looking at election coverage and the world of political television. Plus, from time to time the Fonejacker’s cast of characters will be popping up with prank calls.

The last time an alternative, satirical election broadcast was attempted, it was the utterly fantastic Election Night Armistice in 1997, where Armando Iannucci, Peter Baynham and David Schneider introduced Alan Partridge with the latest results from Norwich, a “prostitute in a helicopter” ready to land wherever the first result is declared to try to produce the first scandal of the new parliament, and a male voice choir performing popular news theme tunes. It’s hard to imagine that Channel Four’s effort will be able to come close to Iannucci’s genius, but with David Mitchell and Charlie Brooker on board, it should be definitely worth watching.

The Alternative Election Night on Thursday 6 May, 9pm on Channel Four.

New video from Yahoo! Politics. How much do people know about voting and politics?

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